“I always wanted to work less – not to stop working, but to work less,” said British philosopher Bertrand Russel in 1932. Technological progress will ensure that Russel's dream comes true in 2084. In the future, artificial intelligence will become more important and support the economy. The labor market will also look completely different.
Technology and AI will have to serve the climate problem. Without a solution to that problem, the economy will stagnate and the world will cease to exist. The demand for scientific profiles on the labor market will increase enormously, while there is already a major shortage there. HR policy will focus on those profiles. Some companies are already doing this, such as ArcelorMittal.
“We need them to achieve a climate change,” said Frouke Lambert, Chief Human Resources HR Square. Ward Verhoeve, president of the Flemish Technical Circle, noted in the same article that companies are increasingly focusing on recruitment, even for other specializations than they need. “Companies are now looking much broader, due to the scarcity of engineers. They will then need a little retraining, but companies are certainly willing to do that for motivated workers.” Retraining, upskilling and retraining will be important.
Our capitalist system will have to be brought into balance with the climate. We believe that our society will continue to grow, but not in the same way as it does today. Further striving for similar economic growth is not sustainable and will no longer be possible in the future. The disastrous consequences of climate change will already be visible in 2024. The balance between our capitalist system and the climate is difficult, but not unthinkable. Companies have to do enough incentive to invest in the climate change (subsidies, tax benefits, etc.), educational institutions must be given sufficient resources and support to support the people who necessary to be trained. There are challenges for the government: who gets the scarce resources? And how should they be used? Which euro yields the most where? It is – of course – not inconceivable that artificial intelligence plays a role in this.
2. The technological innovations
Intended to tackle the climate problem – also have a beneficial side effect. Technological innovations will ensure higher productivity. Consider, for example, journalists who write pure news articles (genre: 'Club Brugge wins 2-1 against Union' or 'Accident on E313 near Beringen'). AI can take over the writing of these articles. An editor's control will probably continue to be necessary, but the more AI is used, the more infallible it will become. Of course, it is not limited to journalism: also consider digital supermarkets, something that supermarket chain Albert Heijn is already experimenting with.
Technology and AI will have to serve the climate problem. Without a solution to that problem, the economy will stagnate and the world will cease to exist. The demand for scientific profiles on the labor market will increase enormously, while there is already a major shortage there. HR policy will focus on those profiles. Some companies are already doing this, such as ArcelorMittal.
“We need them to achieve a climate change,” said Frouke Lambert, Chief Human Resources HR Square. Ward Verhoeve, president of the Flemish Technical Circle, noted in the same article that companies are increasingly focusing on recruitment, even for other specializations than they need. “Companies are now looking much broader, due to the scarcity of engineers. They will then need a little retraining, but companies are certainly willing to do that for motivated workers.” Retraining, upskilling and retraining will be important.
Our capitalist system will have to be brought into balance with the climate. We believe that our society will continue to grow, but not in the same way as it does today. Further striving for similar economic growth is not sustainable and will no longer be possible in the future. The disastrous consequences of climate change will already be visible in 2024. The balance between our capitalist system and the climate is difficult, but not unthinkable. Companies have to do enough incentive to invest in the climate change (subsidies, tax benefits, etc.), educational institutions must be given sufficient resources and support to support the people who necessary to be trained. There are challenges for the government: who gets the scarce resources? And how should they be used? Which euro yields the most where? It is – of course – not inconceivable that artificial intelligence plays a role in this.
The labor market will change and we will have to reorganize our society. AI will replace parts of jobs, meaning that many people cannot fill full-time jobs (32 hours/week).
Innovation will ensure higher productivity. With fewer (human) resources, more and more, or at most the same amount - with care for the climate, of course - will be produced. This increased productivity will ensure that people have to work less. After all, demand will not continue to rise - the world population is stagnating - so supply cannot continue to do so either.
In 1870, Belgians worked an average of 3,483 hours per year, in 2017 this was only 1,544 hours. That is a decrease of 56% in just under 150 years. We expect that the technological revolution will cause a further decrease in the number of working hours.
We don't think there is fewer people go to work, but the labor population remains more or less stable, but people work fewer and fewer hours per week. Bertrand Russel is crooked in his essay In Praise of Idleness (1932) already stated that technological progress and productivity requirements should result in shorter working weeks, while maintaining wages. Experiments with 4/5 are already underway in various countriese weeks, with full pay. Participants – both employers and employees – are very complimentary about this.
We expect that trend – working less for at least the same pay – will continue in the future. In concrete terms, we expect that in 2084 the average full-time job will be 15 hours per week.
Migration is part of the human condition and will always exist as a phenomenon - even in 2084. There needs to be a shift in our thinking about this. Open borders are necessary. We need people from all over the world to achieve the climate shift: engineers, but also workers. People often want to migrate temporarily, work somewhere for a year and then return to their family, but by making legal migration virtually impossible, people stay in the country longer, because they know that they may not be able to return later.
The impact of AI on the economy and employment will be significant. While AI will provide efficiencies and new market opportunities, it will also automate jobs and change the skills required in the labor market. Human creativity and skills that are difficult to automate are expected to become more valuable.
